Regional projections

Forest management and planning today are aiming to reconcile different objectives of sustainable forest use, such as carbon sequestration, maintenance of biodiversity, and timber and bioenergy production. Potential measures include expanding the area of protected forests, lengthening rotations and thinning intervals or favouring mixed and uneven-aged stands. At the same time, changing climatic conditions have made it necessary to study adaptive forest management measures that maintain productivity and forest health under the changing conditions.  

ForModGroup are involved in several projects where these issues are studied (click links to open):

IBC-CARBON, PROCLIAS, Adapt-First, BiBiFe, Tandem Forest Values

In these projects, our models are developed further to apply more widely to new situations. The main applications are to the PREBAS model to country-wide projections that utilise multisource forest inventory data as input initial state at 16 m resolution  (collaboration with Luke) and selected climate change scenarios for weather (collaboration with Finnish Meteorogical Institute). Model simulations compare different forest management options under scenarios defined together with stakeholders.

Regional forestry pro­jec­tions.

Example output from simulations: Woody growth in pine under SRESa1b for different N uptake assumptions: Poor (top), Default (middle) and Rich (bottom).

 

References

Climate Guide (Choose Terrestrial ecosystems)

Holmberg, M., Aalto, T., Akujärvi, A., Arslan, A. N., Bergstrom, I., Bottcher, K., Lahtinen, I., Makela, A., Markkanen, T., Minunno, F., Peltoniemi, M., Rankinen, K., Vihervaara, P. & Forsius, M. (2019) Ecosystem Services Related to Carbon Cycling - Modeling Present and Future Impacts in Boreal Forests.  Frontiers in plant science. 10: 343-351.  

Forsius, M., Kujala, H., Minunno, F., Holmberg, M., Leikola, N., Mikkonen, N., Autio, I., Paunu, V-V., Tanhuanpää, T., Hurskainen, P., Mäyrä, J., Kivinen, S., Keski-Saari, S., Kosenius, A-K., Kuusela, S., Virkkala, R., Viinikka, A., Vihervaara, P., Akujarvi, A., Bäck, J. & 15 others, 2021. Developing a spatially explicit modelling and evaluation framework for integrated carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation: application in southern Finland Science of the Total Environment. 775, 16 p., 145847.

Mäkelä J, Minunno F, Aalto T, Mäkelä A, Markkanen T, Peltoniemi M. 2020. Sensitivity of 21st century simulated ecosystem indicators to model parameters, prescribed climate drivers, RCP scenarios and forest management actions for two Finnish boreal forest sites. Biogeosciences 17: 2681-2700.   

Holmberg et al. 2021 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146668